Only 18 months ago I was sitting with a mobile operator who told me that their main objective was to ensure that data services didn’t cannibalize their voice revenue. The reason was simple – data service generated about 5% of the revenue.
Fast forward to June 2010. The sun is shining and the World Cup in soccer is just about to kick off, but more importantly Softbank Mobile Japan announces that data services for the first time overtook voice services in revenue in Q1! Japan has always paved the way for mobile data services, and NTT DoCoMo are expected to follow suit during the second half of this year.
But Japan is no different (at least not in this specific sense) than any other country in the western world. I see mobile operators here in Sweden spend the majority of their TV advertising on promoting mobile data services. It has become a differentiator and a big enough piece of the pie. We will shadow Japan and probably break the 50% marker in 2011 in many cases. Mobile data is a $50bn+ business this year in the US according to Chetan Sharma Consulting; a significant business where minor changes and adjustments in packaging, pricing, production cost and ARPU has a substantial impact on bottom-line.
Chetan Sharma also said that the US mobile subscription penetration was approximately 94% at the end of Q1 2010, and past 100% if we take out the demographics of 5 yrs and younger. Growth won’t come from winning new voice users, but from making the ones you have more profitable and to steal customers from the competition – e.g. with compelling data offerings. And you’ll have to control production cost since they’ll constantly expect more at the same price.
The conclusion is that mobile operators must take a seriously look at the packaging of their data services. “All you can eat” is not the best for (almost all) your customers, and it’s certainly not the best for your business case – especially as access speeds go up. That’s why we see more and more mobile operators moving away from flat rate data packages, as Cam referred to in his recent blog post. Tiered services are happening – thank God!
Eventually we will have options for people with different needs. But let’s stop for a second and consider what you’re trying to accomplish. Tiered services can either be a customer incentive or a cost insurance – or both. Don’t get too introvert in controlling potential exceptions with caps and limitations. This will add complexity, customer concern (even if they’re not even close to any limit/cap), and you’re up against some serious competition out there. But still, as said, small changes can have a big impact. Offloading peak hours to better utilize your network, attract new customers, or offer added value services that can boost ARPU can boost your profitability and ability to invest even more in your services and customer support.
I hate to say it, but we know from experience that devices (e.g. iPhone launches or subsidiesed phones) actually sell more subscriptions than any packages we produce. But service packages will support the devices and add to the differentiation. Make sure you know who your customer is, where he is, what applications he’s running, and what device he’s using – in order to accommodate his then current and general needs. Make sure your information is reliable since accurate intelligence enables proper business decisions.
So what are my recommendations? I’ve said it before (Do’s and Don’ts in Bandwidth Control) – keep it simple! Your biggest challenge will be to communicate it, implement it, and justify it (“is YouTube video or web?”). Know your customer. Define your target group and offer applicable services. Serving young savvy nerds with the same offering as unsophisticated 65+ Internet users won’t work. Don’t become too technology-driven and introvert in your business model. And avoid too many options since they will cause confusion.
So, do I need to say that we know this space and offer the solution you’re looking for? Well, we are, and we’re darn good at it! I look forward to you reaching out to me to discuss this further, but in the meantime I’ll kick back and enjoy some seriously good World Cup soccer. Sweden didn’t qualify this year, which gives Swedish mobile operators another four years to work out a business model that supports the network being flooded with real-time streaming video. Good luck (no irony intended).