I was having a discussion with a service provider (wireline broadband, interestingly enough) and he asked me if I thought that the iPad would have a significant impact on his network. My initial reaction was no, but as we talked through the issue, my opinion shifted.

When asked that question, my first thought was that the iPad would not affect a wireline broadband network that much, right? It is only a small number of devices (relatively speaking), and it is not like it can be used for file sharing. Sure, it can stream video, but how often are you going to sit and watch video on an iPad?

Then I started thinking about the real impact of the iPhone. Although the iPhone is a great device, and has certainly caused ATT issues in the US, and other operators abroad, as users take advantage of the media capabilities of the phone, it had a much broader effect on the industry as a whole (that incidently led directly to the iPad). Before the iPhone, phone-based data usage was mainly email (ala RIM and Blackberry devices) and light web browsing. The long lasting effect of the Blackberry was that people became used to being connected, and with the scarcity of Wi-Fi hotspots, people began to want always on mobile broadband, and business users began to purchase the data plans from mobile operators. Once the iPhone was released, it kick started the smartphone market like never before, and brought more users to the mobile broadband buffet. Every vendor wanted an “iPhone-killer”, and Android, Palm, Microsoft, and other operating systems began to proliferate on handsets at reasonable prices. These devices gave users a taste of what high quality media and browsing experiences could be had with mobile platforms, and even a taste of some really useful applications (phone-based GPS and mapping applications) that took advantage of the mobile data connections – including some streaming media and VOIP applications. The advent of flat rate mobile data plans (at least in name) for reasonable prices has spurred the demand for mobile broadband, and with so many devices able to connect to the mobile broadband network, has driven operators to invest heavily in the infrastructure to meet the increasing demand.

So the impact (I think) of the iPad will be similar. The “iPad-killer” race is on, with HP, Dell, Google, and many others racing to release devices based on Android or Windows that will compete with the iPad. There have already been application releases for Kindle and Netflix on the iPad, and more streaming applications will follow on these alternative platforms. I am not sure I want to watch all my TV on an iPad-like device, but it is easier than watching on a laptop or an iPhone. Add a camera and a USB port (hint, hint) to a device like this with a 10 hour battery life, and the potential for a truly portable media device is not a future – it is the present.

This is the future I see coming out of the iPad – one that has the potential to dramatically increase the usage (especially streaming media) on both wireline and wireless broadband networks. People will use their wireless at home and mobile broadband while traveling. If you are a heavy media consumer, traveling with an iPad and a laptop makes sense – I can read or watch movies on the plane with the iPad, do email on the laptop, and even multitask in hotel rooms – watching media on the iPad while working on the laptop.

So if you are a provider that is ready for this – and can deliver a high Quality of Experience to your users (and monitor it to make sure that you are delivering a high QoE) – you have a bright future ahead of you.

Me – I can finally have a data pad like I always saw on Star Trek.